How to compare the industrial economy with high-quality development

    In the first half of the year, the industrial economy and industrial prosperity continued to operate smoothly: 1from month to 6month, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.7% year-on-year , and the monthly growth rate has been in 6% to 7% the growth range of 129.8for more than two years; 6In the last quarter, it was in 130a relatively high economic range.

    While the industrial economy is running smoothly, new kinetic energy continues to maintain rapid growth.Data show that from 1month to 6month, the added value of high-tech industries, equipment manufacturing and strategic emerging industries increased by 11.6% , 、9.2% and 8.7% year-on , which were higher than the overall growth rate of industries above 4.9designated size 2.5- year, respectively 2.0. From the perspective of new energy vehicles ( 88.1% ), industrial robots ( 23.9% ), integrated circuits ( 15.0% ) and other new product output maintained rapid growth, the growth rate all exceeded the average growth level of industries above designated size.The results of the business climate survey also show that the new kinetic energy remains at a high level of prosperity, and the medicine, instrumentation, and IT equipment continues to operate in the prosperity index of high-tech industries such as 130above high prosperity range.

    It is worth noting that the stable operation of the industrial economy in the first half of the year has two impacts.First, my country's innovation efforts have been continuously increased to promote the rapid growth of knowledge and technology-intensive industries.With the continuous implementation of the national policy of encouraging innovation-driven, China's innovation capability is steadily improving. The latest " 2018Global Innovation Index Report" released shows that China has 2017global ranking to No. 22risen from the 171 in 2018, ranking first in the global innovation index for the first time 20.The second is the contribution of the rapid growth of high-energy-consuming industries.The data shows that from 1month to 5month, the main business income growth rates of petroleum, chemical, non-metallic mineral products, steel, non-ferrous metals, and power 6industries with high energy consumption were 17.1% , 、10.8% , 、14.2% , 、15.2% , 、12.2% and 12.5% , respectively. It is higher than the of industrial enterprises above designated size .10.2% growth rate The acceleration of sales growth in energy-intensive industries is behind the dependence of industrial development on infrastructure investment and real estate investment to a certain extent.

    From these two aspects, the former is an important manifestation of high-quality development, and the latter to some extent indicates that there are hidden worries behind the current steady growth, including the risk of real estate bubbles, the risk of local government debt related to infrastructure, and the difficulty of pollution prevention and control. big risk.At the same time, the rising pressure of upstream resource-based product prices to increase the cost of downstream industries is becoming more and more obvious, and it is also worthy of attention.

    Another concern is the changes in the international economic environment.In recent times, the U.S.-China trade war provoked by the United States has begun to have an impact on business confidence.The results of the business climate survey showed that in the second quarter, the entrepreneurial confidence index 129.9, which reflects the prediction of the future prosperity, was slightly lower than that of the previous quarter 4.4.Entrepreneur confidence index in most industries has fallen to varying degrees, especially in electronics, machinery and other industries that are included in the tax increase list. The decline in entrepreneur confidence index is relatively large.The data shows that the confidence index of electrical, general equipment, special equipment, and IT equipment manufacturing companies fell by one 7.1point, one 6.0point, one 5.1point and one 4.9point respectively compared with the first quarter.The decline of the entrepreneur confidence index further affects the future investment willingness of enterprises.In the second quarter, the investment prosperity index of industrial enterprises was 96.9that of the previous quarter 1.9lower than the same period last year 1.6; 100 % lower than 2.9, 2.8and 1.8point and 1.4point.

    At present, the outstanding requirement of industrial operation environment change for the industrial economy is to match the high-quality development, because the rapid growth in the past is not only unsustainable, but also has risks, and it is imperative to accelerate the conversion of new and old kinetic energy.

    First of all, it is necessary to clarify what is high-quality industrial development.The premise is to understand what is not high-quality development of industry, such as excessive consumption of resources, and development that is not in place with environmental governance is not high-quality development, and must be resolutely improved; The growth driven by the real estate bubble is not high-quality development and must be resolutely curbed; for example, economic growth mainly driven by borrowing and increasing leverage ratio is not high-quality development, and must be resolutely deleveraging; The so-called "finely decorated" commercial housing, thereby pushing up the actual house price, and finally being destroyed by the households "finely decorated" reloading causes huge waste of resources and environmental damage. Development is not high-quality development, and more attention should be paid to resource stock including The optimal allocation of real estate resources stock... It is necessary to effectively combine the requirements of "higher quality, more efficiency, fairer and more sustainable" put forward by the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, combined with the three major battles that are currently being actively promoted, find Good development balance and force point.

    Second, we must understand what high-quality development should mainly do.If we truly understand the meaning of shifting from high-speed growth to high-quality development, we will not be overly concerned about the decline in economic growth. We should reduce the requirements for industrial growth rate and improve the requirements for quality.This requirement depends on innovation input, but the more important thing is to focus on the input-output efficiency of innovation. It is necessary to fully reflect the "determination, perseverance, and focus" proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping. These three "hearts" A close relationship is indispensable.In today's more impetuous social atmosphere, "persistence" is particularly important.The emergence of many problems and the occurrence of many deviations from high-quality development are more or less related to the idea of ​​quick success.We must not only have the drive and urgency of "roll up your sleeves and work hard", but also have the mind and tenacity that "success doesn't have to depend on me".This is to match the table with high-quality development. Those that match should be pushed quickly; those that do not match should be resolutely changed.